WP4. Testing system scale hypotheses of abrupt change

WP4 will deliver an analysis of the empirical data from WP2 and 3, structured by the framework created by WP1. This analysis will draw out the generalities of the land use-wellbeing link and allow national scale conclusions. The analysis will primarily be statistical, initially using simple curve fitting and model building to look at broad patterns across and between the three land use intensification gradients of WP2. We will investigate both the statistics of the land use intensification-wellbeing link and the pathways by which they may be related. By combining these outputs with our qualitative datasets and the Bayesian Belief Network created by WP1, we will be able to construct and then test simple models of the links between ecosystem structure, function, services and wellbeing. The broad conclusions of this work are needed as input to the discussion and creation of scenarios in WP5, and also to produce policy relevant conclusions for the woodland nations of Africa. Thus there is a focus on producing generalised knowledge suitable for short, high impact papers and concise policy briefs.
Research Questions
Q4.1 Are there abrupt changes in wellbeing metrics along land use intensification gradients?
Q4.2 Are the processes by which households and communities respond to the loss of woodlands generalizable? If so, which processes link land use intensification and wellbeing?
Q4.3 Given future scenarios of woodland degradation and agricultural expansion, what are the likely national scale impacts on ES? What particular implications does this entail for the poorest?